My post last year after the Academy Awards focused on the dismal ratings of the ceremony – Oscars 2021: The Show, the Awards, and the Uncertain Future. Let’s not worry about that this time. Often by now many of the categories are sure things building an unstoppable momentum during the Awards season. That’s still the case this year, but there are some uncertainties. There could be a couple of surprises (let’s hope!) and the Best Picture seems to be up in the air now. The Academy stirred up another controversy in its endless quest to boost the ratings (ok, we can’t escape this subject). Eight category presentations were taken off the main program – film editing, makeup and hairstyling, original score, production design, sound, animated short, documentary short, and live-action short. These will be honored in the hour before the prime telecast.
Due to a combination of going to the theater, streaming, VOD, and good old DVDs, I was able to see all the best picture nominees, except two; Coda and Drive My Car. Here’s my predictions for the major categories (I omitted the three short film categories, because I’m not familiar with them at all):
- Best Picture: Coda – A month ago, The Power of the Dog seemed to have this in the bag. But after both the Screen Actors Guild’s (SAG) and Producers Guild of America (PGA) gave Coda their top prize, the heartfelt coming-of-age story about a child of deaf adults could be in for quite a night. So, I’m going for it based on momentum and that I just didn’t like The Power of the Dog that much (although the ending is great and saved the movie for me).
- Director: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion still looks good for Director.
- Lead Actor: Will Smith, King Richard – Looks like this could be Will Smith’s first Oscar and it will be well deserved (see my full review here King Richard: A Telling Look at the Man Behind the Williams Sisters
- Lead Actress: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye – Chastain won the SAG which could make her the favorite now. Olivia Colman is also in the running. The Lost Daughter was the most disappointing movie of the year for me, so I’m hoping for Chastain.
- Supporting Actor: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog – Although I didn’t care for the movie, Smit-McPhee was excellent and the mastermind of the classic ending.
- Supporting Actress: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story – This is all but guaranteed. DeBose will join Rita Moreno and win an Oscar for playing Anita 60 years later.
- Original Screenplay: Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza – It’s original alright and could be the highlight of the night for Licorice Pizza. See my previous full review here Updated Post: Licorice Pizza – A Wholesome, Goofy Romp Through the SoCal 1970s. Kenneth Branaugh’s Belfast has a good chance, as well. See my previous full review here Belfast: A Personal Coming-of-Age Story in a Troubling Time
- Adapted Screenplay: Coda – Toss up with The Power of the Dog.
- Documentary Feature: Summer of Soul – Questlove’s film about the forgotten 1969 Harlem Cultural Festival seems a must-see. Stream it on Hulu.
- Animated Feature: Encanto
- Cinematography: Dune – Dune should win most of the visual effects categories starting with this one.
- Visual Effects: Dune
- Film Editing: Dune
- International Film: Drive My Car – The three-hour Japanese film is a lock for best international film, and while also nominated for Best Picture, there won’t be a “Parasite” repeat this year.
- Costume Design: Cruella
- Makeup and Hairstyling: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
- Production Design: Dune
- Sound: Dune
- Score: Dune
- Original Song: “No Time to Die” – Billie Eilish, looking to become the third Bond movie song to win the Academy Award (the other two, Adele’s “Skyfall” and Sam Smith’s “Writing’s on the Wall”).
The Academy Awards are on ABC Sunday, March 27th at 5:00 p.m. (repeated at 8:00). The show will be hosted by Amy Schumer, Regina Hall, and Wanda Sykes (they’ve tried no host, one, two, so why not three)? Hours of the red-carpet parade precede the actual awards telecast along with the eight behind-the-scenes trophies in the 4:00-5:00 hour. I was 14/20 last year with my predictions. No so good. I will report back on how I did in my Oscars post after the ceremonies.
Trivia: Where did the term “Oscar” come from?
Answer: Academy librarian and future Executive Director, Margaret Herrick thought the statue resembled her Uncle Oscar. Or, Sydney Skolsky used the name in his Hollywood column as a swipe at theater owner Oscar Hammerstein. Or, Bette Davis thought the trophy resembled her husband, Harmon Oscar Nelson. Or, nobody knows for sure. You’ll get credit for any of these answers, but the last one is probably the best. All we do know is that by 1939 (that most illustrious year for movies) the term had stuck to be forever with us.