Oscars Predictions 2024: Looks Like Oppenheimer for the Big Wins

The Best Picture nominations for the year 2023 run from blockbusters (Barbie and Oppenheimer) to critical favorites that few people saw (Past Lives and Anatomy of a Fall). Often by now many of the categories are sure things by building an unstoppable momentum during the Awards season. That’s still the case, but there are some uncertainties this year. Let’s hope for a couple of surprises.

Due to a combination of going to the theater, streaming, and VOD, I was able to see all ten Best Picture nominees. Here’s my predictions for the major categories (I omitted the three short film categories).

• Best Picture: Oppenheimer. After sweeping the Directors, Producers, and Screen Actors Guild Awards, I’m afraid there’s not much suspense here. (The other six Best Picture nominees in addition to the three named above are The Zone of Interest, Poor Things, Killers of the Flower Moon, American Fiction, Maestro, and The Holdovers.
• Director: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer. Ditto for Best Director. This should get Nolan his first Oscar.
• Lead Actor: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer. This one probably comes down to Murphy or Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers). Giamatti seems to have the momentum now, but I’m sticking with Murphy.
• Lead Actress: Emma Stone, Poor Things. As much as I’d like to see Lily Gladstone become the first Native American woman to win Best Actress, Emma Stone’s performance is one for the ages.
• Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer. This one’s a lock. I’m amazed that no one seems to be discussing the “other” Robert (DeNiro) for his work in Killers of the Flower Moon. That evil twinkle in the eye!
• Supporting Actress: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers. Like Downey Jr. this one’s in the bag. She has swept the earlier Awards.
• Original Screenplay: Anatomy of a Fall. Nominated for five Academy Awards, this category seems the likely one to celebrate the Palme D’Or winning film.
• Adapted Screenplay: American Fiction: I’d like this engaging film to win an award, but Oppenheimer could take this as well.
• Documentary Feature: 20 Days in Mariupol. I didn’t see any of the documentaries this year. I’m picking the film with the firsthand look at the war in Ukraine.
• Animated Feature: The Boy and the Heron. This will probably be Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Universe, but I’m going with this one.
• Cinematography: Oppenheimer. One more.
• Visual Effects: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One. This is usually the only category where the franchise blockbusters or superhero movies win an award.
• Film Editing: Oppenheimer. And another.
• International Film: The Zone of Interest. The unnerving depiction of a harmonious family life adjacent to Auschwitz should land Germany the international film award. Honorable mention to the Spanish Society of the Snow, a superb portrayal of the Chilean rugby team’s plane crash in 1972 in the Andes.
• Costume Design: Barbie. Barbie better win something.
• Makeup and Hairstyling: Maestro. One for Maestro?
• Production Design: Poor Things. I was torn between this and Barbie. Both created exquisite dream worlds.
• Sound: Oppenheimer. This could get old.
• Score: Oppenheimer. Shout out for the late Robbie Robertson’s soundtrack for Killers of the Flower Moon. A little blues, some bluegrass, and a pulsing bass throughout a template of Native American rhythms. Unforgettable.
• Original Song: “What Was I Made For” (Billie Eilish). Eilish should win over the other Barbie song nominee, “I’m Just Ken.”

The Academy Awards are on ABC Sunday, March 10th at 4:00 p.m. PDT (new earlier time this year and the show is repeated at 8:00). Jimmy Kimmel is back again for the fourth time as host. Hours of the red-carpet parade precede the actual awards telecast. My predictions last year were 15/20 (18/20 the year before). I’ll report back after the ceremonies.

Trivia: Who is the only actor ever to be nominated twice for the same performance?

Answer: Barry Fitzgerald was nominated for both Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor in 1944’s Best Picture, the musical Going My Way, starring Bing Crosby. (Note: Such a feat is not possible under current Academy rules.)