Often by now many of the Oscar categories are sure things by building an unstoppable momentum during the Awards season. (Think Oppenheimer last year and Everything Everywhere All at Once the year before.) While there are a few slam dunks, more toss-up races are in the field this year, particularly in some major categories. This situation should add some suspense and excitement to the evening.
Due to a combination of going to the theater, streaming, and VOD, I will have seen eight of the ten Best Picture nominees before the big show. I expect to see The Brutalist (On Demand or Amazon) shortly. The Brazilian film, I’m Still Here, may take a while to become readily available. Here’s my annual predictions for the major categories of the 97th Academy Awards (I omitted the three short film categories).
- Best Picture: Anora. After the Golden Globes, Emilia Perez seemed destined to go all the way. Then offensive posts from lead actress, Karla Sofia Gascon, surfaced on social media. Never has a film’s reputation cratered so far, so fast. Fellow Golden Globe winner The Brutalist surged into a prime spot before Anora went on a roll winning the WGA, DGA, PGA, and Spirit Awards. It seemed like a safe bet a week ago until Conclave upended the race by taking home the BAFTA and SAG. See what I mean? This is up for grabs. I’m sticking with Anora.
- Director: Sean Baker, Anora. The Brutalist director Brady Corbet has received tremendous praise for writing and directing a 3½ hour epic on a $10M budget. But the Best Picture and Director usually go hand in hand.
- Lead Actor: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist. Adrien Brody has won most of the earlier awards. By winning the Screen Actors Guild trophy on Sunday, Timothee Chamalet (as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown) threw a wrinkle into Brody’s path. But he should still carry the day.
- Lead Actress: Demi Moore, The Substance. Mikey Madison (Anora) and Moore have been trading the Best Actress Awards. It’s another true toss-up. I’m going with the Academy finally recognizing Demi Moore’s career with an Oscar (she’s never even been nominated). Both of their roles were so daring and vulnerable, but The Substance’s bat-shit crazy scenarios deserve special attention.
- Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain. This one is a lock. He has dominated the prior awards.
- Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez. Saldana seems to have weathered the storm over Emilia Perez and is the odds-on favorite for Supporting Actress.
- Original Screenplay: A Real Pain. Anora could easily win this, but I’ll hope for Jessie Eisenberg’s superb story of mismatched cousins on a Jewish heritage tour of Poland in honor of their late grandmother.
- Adapted Screenplay: Conclave: The intriguing premise of the behind-the-scenes antics in selecting a new Pope make Conclave a good choice. I’ve read Colson Whitehead’s powerful novel, Nickel Boys, and its use of first-person point-of-view makes it a possible pick here.
- Documentary Feature: No Other Land. I didn’t see any of the documentaries this year. I’m picking this timely film about the Israeli occupation of the West Bank.
- Animated Feature: The Wild Robot. The Animated Feature award comes down to the Latvian art house film, Flow, or the popular mainstream movie, The Wild Robot. I’ll go with the film that had more eyes on it.
- Cinematography: The Brutalist. Dune: Part Two is a threat but this feels like a win for The Brutalist. The cinemaphotographer used the VistaVision format which presents a rich and detailed perspective. (All I can go on now are the trailers and written descriptions.)
- Visual Effects: Dune: Part Two. This is usually the only category where the franchise blockbusters or science fiction/superhero movies win an award.
- Film Editing: Anora. I don’t have a strong feeling with this one. Conclave could be a possibility, but Best Picture and Editing often go together.
- International Film: I’m Still Here. Emilia Perez could still hold onto this one, but I’ll pick the Brazilian drama headed by the Golden Globe winning performance of Fernanda Torres.
- Costume Design: Wicked. Wicked’s authentic and stunning costumes should prevail.
- Makeup and Hairstyling: The Substance. Beauty takes on a new standard in The Substance. The makeup is eye-popping and breathtaking.
- Production Design: Wicked. The Wicked world is colorful and enchanting.
- Sound: Dune: Part Two. The planet Arrakis might be a bleak desert, but sound reverberates from above and below the sand. The thumping siren of an approaching sandworm is classic.
- Score: Not sure what to do with this category. The Brutalist and Wicked have support, but I’ll choose Conclave because, well, it’s got to win something.
- Original Song: “El Mal” (Emilia Perez). Two songs were nominated from Emilia Perez, but this is the showstopper.
The Academy Awards are on ABC Sunday, March 3rd at 4:00 p.m. PDT (repeated at 7:30). Conan O’Brien will host the ceremony for the first time. Hours of the red-carpet parade precede the actual awards telecast. My predictions last year were 16/20. I’ll report back after the ceremonies.
Trivia: Name the two sequels to win Best Picture?
Answer: The Godfather Part II (1974) and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2003)